The winter that broke the forecast
Data analysis, October 2026
A monthly forecast of electricity use in Espinho from open E-Redes data, tested month by month without looking ahead: it misses by 2.5% on average. Then I investigated a winter jump of up to 10.5%. The cold explains between 11% and 43% of it, depending on the method.
Open the interactive analysisCode on GitHub
Monthly use, GWh. Move across the chart.
mean error
months of data
January 2026